Just A Thought:
Everything will be all right in the end. If it is not all right, it is not yet the end.
Paulo Coelho
The Real Cost of Having an Opinion
The real cost of an opinion isn’t having it, it’s doing the work required to earn it. This
work is what most people avoid.
The work to hold an opinion isn’t just about accumulating facts and information that
support your argument.
To truly hold an opinion, you must:
- Deeply understand arguments from multiple sides
- Seek out contradictory evidence rather than hiding from it
- Test your thinking against the strongest counterarguments
- Consider how you might be fooling yourself
Someone who has done this work stands apart. Not only can they explain their position at
depth, and argue from multiple perspectives, but they also remain calm when challenged.
They possess a rare intellectual honesty, changing their mind when evidence demands
it.
Darwin exemplified this approach. Rather than dismissing contradictory facts, he actively
collected them, knowing his theory had to account for all evidence, not just the convenient parts.
The ultimate test of understanding:
Can you argue against your position better than your best critics? If not, you haven’t earned your opinion.
This standard is expensive. It takes time. People who hold themselves to it don’t pretend
to know everything. As Maimonides wisely said: “Teach thy tongue to say ‘I do not know,’
and thou shalt progress.”
The world overflows with superficial takes from people who scan headlines and
regurgitate others’ thoughts. They’re easy to outthink if you don’t let them waste your
time.
When faced with strongly opinionated people, ask them to write down their reasoning.
Most won’t bother - revealing volumes. Those who do expose their thinking to scrutiny - well fuzzy logic has nowhere to hide on paper.
The ability to do this intellectual work is rare. The payoff is enormous.
